The International Space Station has been continuously occupied for over 25 years
By Laura M.,
Published by Union Rayo, 25 April 2029
The International Space Station (ISS) is going through its most complicated stage since it began exploring space in 1998. The safety committee that advises NASA has been very clear: if urgent decisions are not made, its end could come sooner than expected. Unresolved cracks, parts that are no longer manufactured, obsolete space suits and an increasingly limited budget are pushing the station into a high-risk situation. And the most worrying thing: there is still no solid plan to retire it safely.
The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), a group that oversees the safety of NASA’s space operations, has sounded all the alarms. In its last meeting (on April 17), it made it clear that the ISS has entered the most unstable phase of its existence. The cracks in its Russian module, the lack of spare parts and the absence of an emergency retirement plan form a combination that worries experts like Rich Williams.
Structural deterioration is already a real threat
The Russian module Zvezda has been dragging problems since 2019. Apparently, it has suffered fissures that have become a constant headache. In April 2024, the air leak in the PrK transfer tunnel reached its highest level, the area had to be completely closed, and there is no definitive solution in sight…
Risk 5 out of 5: the worst that can be said
ASAP has classified the problem at the highest risk level: 5 out of 5. There is no other way to say it: the danger is real, maximum and urgent. NASA and Roscosmos (the Russian NASA) will hold a meeting in Moscow to see if there is anything left to do, although for now there is no consensus between the parties… Nor a clear solution. And the clock is ticking… fast.
Without a retirement plan, the end could be disastrous
The idea is that SpaceX will build a special ship, the USDV, to deorbit the ISS between 2030 and 2031. The idea is for this ship to push the ISS toward the Pacific so that it enters the planet’s atmosphere safely. But that ship does not yet exist. And if the station loses stability ahead of time, the remains could fall uncontrollably over Earth. We’re not talking about a capsule. We’re talking about more than 450 tons falling from the sky.
Old technology, missing spare parts
It should be noted that many parts of the ISS were designed in the 1990s. Some suppliers no longer even exist. And the space suits, yes, the same ones used for going outside, date from the 1970s. In 2024, one of those suits caused a coolant leak during a spacewalk and they had to cancel the mission for fear of repeating the incident with Luca Parmitano in 2013 (he almost drowned because his helmet started filling with water).
Even the support ships fail
It’s not just the ISS. The ships that supply it also have problems. The Russian Progress MS-29 brought bad smells. Boeing’s Starliner had failures in its thrusters. And some missions, like Cygnus NG-22, were directly cancelled.
The numbers no longer add up
And everything has a reason. In 2023, the budget to operate and maintain the station was 1.03 billion dollars. In 2024 it dropped to 993. Right when more resources are needed. And the remaining money is being allocated to building the retirement ship and future commercial stations, but for now it’s all about patching the damage…
An early goodbye?
Elon Musk has said out loud what many are thinking: maybe the ISS should be shut down in 2027, not in 2030. But without a ship to guide it, that end would be a huge risk. And right now, that vehicle is still on the drawing board.
For more than twenty years this Station has been an example of science and cooperation, but now it is no longer a matter of dates, but of urgency. If no one acts fast, the closure will not only be inevitable. It will be dangerous. Because keeping it alive without resources or solutions is no longer viable… We have to accept that all cycles come to an end.
See: Original Article
